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Basnett (right) in familiar alcoholic pose |
Global economy playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order
Will 2015 be a year of Metallica’s “Nothing Else Matters” or Nat King Cole’s “Let’s Face the Music and Dance”?
I don’t think I have actually ever heard the fate of the world be compared with the music scene.
But there is always a first … so step forward Lord Tim Basnett, now retired but still dabbling in financial analysis after years on the Birmingham scene.
A veteran of many jobbing bands - pictured above in one.
He tells me: “I have always likened the world’s markets to a piece of music that, without all the various parts in harmony with each other, is clearly just a horrible mess and noise.
“The bass line, which should hold everything together and complete the score with its dominance, is the US dollar. It will continue to attract the lion’s share of foreign exchange activity during the course of the year whilst the other component parts find themselves either being rewritten or just decrescendo-ing and not being heard. That bass line will be prevalent as long as the US economy remains vibrant and strong.
“This year sees a General election in the UK with the result at this stage far from clear and very much in the hands of just how politicians manage themselves in the next three or four months with their promises of what they might do if elected into Government. In my musical score this will form the key part of the tune for UK markets and ultimately affect other parts of the song.
“Alto and tenor parts will be very much driven by what happens in the Eurozone markets and importantly the commodity markets, particularly oil prices. Early indications would point to this piece of music being a complete mish-mash of out of tune notes and missing and out-of-time sequences which will have to be tweaked before there is any resemblance of a song that will become embedded into one’s brain.”
Think Morecombe & Wise and the Andre Previn sketch.
Lord Tim goes on: “What is needed is a strong conductor to take control but sadly the world is lacking anybody that has the skill and prowess to achieve the harmony that is required so I feel that the scale of market activity will not be a semi-tonic ascendancy but more of an erratic arpeggio roller-coaster ride.”
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And another line-up |
Er, hit me with that one again, Tim, would you please?
But he continues: “Greece has again upset the applecart in the Eurozone markets and raising some serious questions about their economic rescue package with the Troika. The single currency still finds itself in a position where it is difficult to attract investors but in a more favourable position for Eurozone exporters.
“Mario Draghi and the ECB have a year ahead that will be far from easy as they try to find further measures to stimulate Europe. Meanwhile oil prices look set to fall further and inflict economic damage on those economies and Governments that have not prepared for a rainy day and remain purely reliant on ‘black gold’ for their survival.
“There may be trouble ahead.”
But not for Lord Tim surely if you run the lyrics on … ‘but while there's music and moonlight and love and romance, let's face the music and dance’.
The lad’s such a romantic!